Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



Open Access
GRINS THEMATIC AREAS
RESOURCES
This paper introduces a concomitant-variable hidden semi-Markov model tailored to analyse marine count data in the Venice lagoon. Our model targets acqua alta events, i.e. the exceedances of flooding limits, addressing the prevalent zero counts within the dataset through a fitted zero-inflated Poisson distribution. The data’s dynamics are attributed to a discrete set of hidden environmental risk states, evolving through time following a (nonhomogeneous) hidden semi-Markov chain. Furthermore, we extend the conventional hidden semi-Markov approach by introducing regression-dependent state-specific duration parameters, enhancing the model’s adaptability and precision in capturing real-world complexities. Our methodology hinges on the maximum-likelihood estimation, directly optimizing the log-likelihood function to infer the model’s parameters. Through the definition of this novel hidden semi-Markov model, we aim to offer a complete understanding of the intricate interplay between weather states, environmental variables, and the observed marine count data, thus contributing to a nuanced analysis of the Venice lagoon’s data.
KEYWORDS
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions. The work of Antonello Maruotti has been partially supported by Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, grant no. 2022XRHT8R The SMILE project: Statistical Modelling and Inference to Live the Environment. The work of Alessio Pollice was partially funded by the European Union—NextGenerationEU, Mission 4, Component 2, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018—CUP H93C22000650001). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
CITE THIS WORK