Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



GRINS THEMATIC AREAS
RESOURCES
We explore the use of a penalized complexity prior for the parameter regulating the variance of the measurement error in the covariates. We refer to area-level models that belong to the wider class of small-area models. Our proposal induces an increasing shrinkage towards the potential absence of measurement error as long as we add information through the inclusion of additional covariates. In this setting, we assume that a subset of covariates is measured with error, with a similar amplitude throughout the small areas. Our proposal aims to provide accurate estimates and, at the same time, to perform model selection. To this end, we implement a posterior predictive p-value procedure to discriminate among models. This is computationally easier than the more formal computation of the Bayes factor, which is particularly challenging in this context.
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AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
The authors thank S. Arima and A. Pollice for giving useful insights.
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