Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



GRINS THEMATIC AREAS
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In this paper, we implement a novel posterior predictive p-value procedure with the end to discriminate among models. The novelty of the method consists in the fact that the proposed posterior predictive p-value can be easily calibrated converting it into an upper bound of the Bayes factor. This approach may be computationally convenient in those situations in which the Bayes factor is hard to compute. As an example, we consider the case where the null model is the classical small area Fay-Herriot model whilst the alternative one accounts for the possible measurement error in the auxiliary variables. In this case, the alternative model has a different dimension, given the additional likelihood component accounting for the measurement error, then the Bayes factor may result particularly sensible to the magnitude of the additional component. In contrast, simulations show that our method does not suffer from the different dimensions of the two models.
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AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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