Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



Open Access
THEMATIC AREAS
RESOURCES
This paper introduces a framework for applying global parametric sensitivity analyses to energy system optimization models. The methodology presented is based on the optimal transport theory, enabling the identification of the most influential model inputs in shaping key outputs, such as energy mix composition, technology deployment, and system costs. The technique is applied to an instance for Italy within the Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis energy planning tool. Algorithms devoted to managing inputs samplings, model runs and outputs postprocessing are developed and presented. Results are derived by exploring their dependency on the assumed energy scenarios and inputs variability. The findings of the paper show that demand levels and costs are the most influential inputs in business-as-usual scenarios, while techno-environmental constraints and efficiencies represent the most important inputs in decarbonization scenarios. Expanding input sampling ranges leads to the emergence of additional clusters of solutions, revealing alternative cost-optimal technology configurations and energy mixes that may not appear under narrower input variations. The proposed methodology helps in identifying parametrically the most impacting sources of uncertainty in energy planning and is openly available for future applications.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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