Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



Open Access
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Recent advances in local models for point processes have highlighted the need for flexible methodologies to account for the spatial heterogeneity of external covariates influencing process intensity. In this work, we introduce tessellated spatial regression, a novel framework that extends segmented regression models to spatial point processes, with the aim of detecting abrupt changes in the effect of external covariates on the process intensity. Our approach consists of two main steps. First, we apply a spatial segmentation algorithm to geographically weighted regression estimates, generating different tessellations that partition the study area into regions where model parameters can be assumed constant. Next, we fit log-linear Poisson models in which covariates interact with the tessellations, enabling region-specific parameter estimation and classical inferential procedures, such as hypothesis testing on regression coefficients. Unlike geographically weighted regression, our approach allows for discrete changes in regression coefficients, making it possible to capture abrupt spatial variations in the effect of real-valued spatial covariates. Furthermore, the method naturally addresses the problem of locating and quantifying the number of detected spatial changes. We validate our methodology through simulation studies and applications to two examples where a model with region-wise parameters seems appropriate and to an environmental dataset of earthquake occurrences in Greece.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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