Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



Open Access
This paper examines the determinants of natural catastrophe (NatCat) insurance demand among Italian limited companies, combining a dedicated ANIA survey on insurance contracts with geographic risk indicators from ISPRA and GeoSafe and with firm-level information from AIDA. Despite Italy’s significant exposure to floods, earthquakes and landslides, NatCat insurance penetration remains low. Descriptive statistics and spatial analysis reveal a clear mismatch between physical risk and insurance uptake. Logistic regressions show that exposure to seismic risk and hydraulic risk is positively and significantly associated with the probability of holding coverage, but the marginal effects are small, indicating that insurance decisions respond only weakly to underlying hazard levels. No significant relationship emerges for landslides, reflecting both limited supply and low demand. Firm characteristics, sectoral affiliation and regional disparities play a stronger role than objective risk in explaining uptake. Overall, the analysis points to a persistent protection gap among Italian limited companies. Reducing it will require both demand-side measures—such as awareness campaigns and targeted incentives—and supply-side interventions, including public–private reinsurance schemes and premium-stabilisation tools in high-risk areas. The introduction of mandatory NatCat insurance is a major institutional step; assessing its impact on firms’ risk perception and on the insurance culture more broadly will be essential for future policy design.
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AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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